Canvassing for Opinion - aka "Blairs Brain on Cannabis"

IMHO prohibition sentiment requires inherent addiction to status quo, an incapacity to visualise beyond the here and now and a desperate desire to know others might feel the same... Reform is not revolutionary, rather it is evolutionary. Having survived banging your head against a brick wall the evolutionist relishes having stopped. / Blair

Tuesday, January 30, 2007

IPCC report due friday (6degrees a possibility/2100)

The scientific evidence surrounding climate change now suggests feedback and forcing is greater than previously estimated... Kyoto is increasingly irrelevant, 'far to little, far to late.. '

Do emissions cuts add up to climate stabilization? And are they equitable, viable and deliverable?


At about 3:00am over the last weekend the BBC featured The [Davos] World Debates on climate change. Lots of mentions of Al Gore's movie, not a mention of an international agreement beyond Kyoto. A bit of backslapping over California, but Africa it was noted, was ignored.

(What we are seeing is evidencing the NORTH/SOUTH dilemma i keep harping on about, It is a shame TVNZ/TVOne cannot time shift this important debate, it was not even mentioned on mainstream news.... I can tell you who won the Australian Tennis Open though.)

Without a precautionary global consensus to 'cap' (contract) and 'trade' (converge) things are going to continue to get very uncomfortable very quickly.

The international negotiations under the UNFCCC banner to agree a climate treaty are making very slow progress because no framework, no set of principles, has yet been agreed as the basis on which to proceed. Not even a temperature or atmospheric concentration target has yet been set. As a result, the Kyoto Protocol was negotiated on an ad hoc basis, with each industrialised nation, or group of nations, making an offer on the amount it would cut its emissions below their 1990 level. It has been sold as 'the art of the possible'.

We are, in my view, quite simply not playing our part in finding the required international solution space (ie: 2 degree limit). While MfE's focus is on delivering NZ's Kyoto commitment obligations locked into 1990-2012 mindsets and science, MfE's climate change manager Phil Gurnsey acknowledged in a telephone call [from myself] last week that NZ's climate policy was in essence the *MildGreen Initiative / Global Commons Institute long lobbied for 'contraction and convergence' and that Phil and MfE climate change strategists were planning to come and discuss this with me this month, but from my experience to date, I believe this to be either obfuscatory or incompetence (or both).

There is neither the WILL to have that discussion in public nor evidence of C&C in public policy formulation documents .

MfE have failed the 'being seen to consult' test.

Any Cap&Trade [or Cap&Share] strategy depends upon a global C&C framework and agreement.

[We have to know how far the brick wall is away, and how fast we are going so we know how hard to apply the brakes.]

As long as there is no work (or public advocacy) towards that 'end game', what we do do will be illusory.

Based on this weeks IPCC reports scientific consensus - failure to set precautionary targets may be grotesquely irresponsible. Would MfE have us all join the deniers, sit back and watch the holocaust begin.?

Well, MfE, Parker, Pope, Clark et al, 'not in my name....'

Blair Anderson
50 Wainoni Road,
CHCH 8061
ph (643) 389 4065 cell 027 265 7219

* Correspondence to Kay Hewitt, Deputy Director, NZ Climate Change Programme, Dept. of the Prime Minister and Cabinet 25/11/2001, and in written and verbal submission's to PM Helen Clark's "Climate Change" Inquiry.
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